UK house prices rose for a third consecutive month in December amid a shortage of properties on the market, but are forecast to drop this year, according to Halifax.
Britain’s biggest mortgage lender, which this week joined in new year rate cutting, said that property prices grew by 1.1% in December, after a 0.6% rise in November and a 1.2% increase in October. A typical home in the UK is now worth £287,105, about £3,000 more than in November.
However, Halifax said that the monthly, quarterly and annual growth rates were driven by a shortage of properties on the market rather than strong buyer demand.
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“That said, with mortgage rates continuing to ease, we may see an increase in confidence from buyers over the coming months,” said Kim Kinnaird, the director of Halifax Mortgages.
It is the first time in eight months that Halifax has reported annual growth in the UK housing market, with prices up by 1.7% year on year in December.
“A clean sweep of positive house price growth in December could be considered somewhat of a Christmas miracle given the turbulent year 2023 turned out to be,” said Marc von Grundherr, a director of the London estate agency Benham and Reeves.
Figures released by the Bank of England on Thursday showed that mortgage approvals for house purchases rose to 50,100 in November, from 47,900 in October, pointing to a strengthening of demand.
However, analysts at Goldman Sachs have estimated that UK homeowners are facing a £19bn increase in mortgage costs by the end of next year as millions more fixed-rate deals expire, putting additional strain on household finances.
Halifax still expects house prices to fall by up to 4% this year as high interest rates and inflation stretch mortgage affordability.
The lender said that the price of an average UK property would fall by between 2% and 4% this year, despite a new year mortgage rate-cutting spree by major lenders.
“As we move through 2024, the UK property market will continue to reflect the wider uncertainty, and buyers and sellers are likely to be naturally cautious when considering making a move,” Kinnaird said. “While wage growth is now above inflation, helping ease cost of living pressures for some and improving housing affordability, interest rates are likely to remain elevated for as long as inflation remains markedly above the Bank of England’s target.”
In December, the Bank held interest rates at 5.25% for a third consecutive time – even as the rate of inflation fell to 3.9% in November, its lowest rate in two years.
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The Bank’s target rate of inflation is 2%.
Halifax said that the south-east of England continued to experience the most downward pressure on house prices, with homes dropping by an average of 4.5% over the last year.
London remains at the top spot for the highest average house price across all the regions, at £528,798, although prices in the capital have declined by 2.3% annually.
Northern Ireland continues to be the strongest performing nation or region in the UK, with house prices increasing by 4.1% annually. Properties in Northern Ireland now cost on average £192,153.
“We should be wary of reading too much into a couple of months of positive price data, but there is a growing perception on the property front line that things are turning a corner,” said Jonathan Hopper, the chief executive of Garrington Property Finders. “We’re seeing increasing numbers of strategic buyers, who sat on the fence last year while prices fell, restart their previously paused plans. Buyers are coming back and prices are stabilising as a result.”
